尾矿库溃坝风险定量评价方法探讨

针对目前尾矿库安全评价中无定量评价尾矿库溃坝风险的现状,坝体稳定性计算中未考虑到坝体实际为非均质体的特点,本文提出将容重、内摩擦角和凝聚力三者视为随机变量,采用蒙特卡洛模型计算尾矿坝溃坝失效概率；综合运用水文学、水动力学、非牛顿流体的运动理论,建立尾矿库溃坝后尾矿下泄模型,以计算溃坝淹没范围；综合考虑尾矿库溃坝后生命损失、财政损失和环境损失,计算尾矿库溃坝风险损失度；最终确定尾矿库溃坝风险度,以期提高尾矿库安全评价技术、确保尾矿库安全健康运行.

Discussion on quantitative assessment method of dam failure risks in tailings dam

Considering the current status of no quantitative assessment of dam failure risks in security assessment of tailings dam and that the fact of dam body being heterogeneous body isn’t taken into account in stability calculation of the dam body,the article puts forward the idea of viewing volume weight,internal friction angle and cohesion as random variables and adopting Monte-Carlo model to calculate effectiveness-losing probability of dam failure in tailings dam as well as establishing tailings flow model of tailings dam after dam failure based on hydrology,hydrodynamics and movement theory of non-Newtonian fluid to compute submergence range due to the failure;Loss ratio of dam failure in tailings dam is calculated through computation of loss of life,financial and environmental loss after dam failure.Finally,weakness level of dam failure in tailings dam is determined with the above data for improvement in security assessment technology of tailings dam and guarantee of safe and sound operation of tailings dam.