2050年中国能源消费的情景预测

与全球气候变化紧密相关的能源消费问题是当今世界各国关注的热点,特别是中国能源消费规模、能源消费峰值和消费结构等更是关注的重点.论文在简要评述中国能源消费峰值、能源消费预测方法和模型的基础上,系统回顾了国内外对中国能源消费预测研究成果,侧重于人口和经济等驱动中国能源消费的两大主要因素,参考主要发达国家经济发展过程中人均能源消耗及人均累计能耗变化规律,对中国未来能源消费趋势进行了定量预测分析.结果表明:① 中国人均能耗、总量和人均累计消费量均有较大的发展潜力.2050年中国人均能耗大致在4.75~9.31 tce,上限也只相当于美国人均能耗峰值的76%;中国能源消费总量还将持续增长,2050 年的能源消费总量在61.91×10⁸~121.33×10⁸tce;1870-2050 年,中国人均累计能耗最佳分布区间为207~294 tce,只相当于1870-2012 年美国人均累计能耗的46%、德国的56%、英国的57%.② 文献梳理表明,当前预测中国能源消费峰值的各种研究成果大多认为在62×10⁸~79×10⁸tce,而峰值年份则出现在2035-2045 年,论文认为除美国、英国和德国情景将有峰值出现外,其他情景尚不可能出现峰值;③ 法国情景下中国能源消费“零”增长将于2040 年左右出现;日本、韩国以及基准情景预测显示,2035 年以后中国能源消费将进入到2%左右的低速增长期.上述研究结果表明,中国未来能源消费预测采用法国、日本、韩国情景较为合理,2035 年以后,中国能源消费将进入低速增长期.当前,中国人均收入不高,人均能耗尤其人均累计能耗处于较低水平,过早乐观承诺能源消费峰值,易使气候变化谈判陷入被动;从中国国情出发,需给中国社会经济发展留有能源消耗空间;促进能源资源的节约集约使用,积极倡导节能型生产生活方式,是中国社会经济可持续发展、保障能源安全、积极应对全球气候变化的现实需要.

2050 Energy Consumption Projection for China

As fossil fuels consumption and global warming are closely associated with each other, energy consumption has attracted great attention around the world. Especially when China overtook the U.S. as the world's biggest energy consumer in 2010, the time and value for China's peak energy consumption become the focus of world attention. Based on a brief review of existing peak energy consumption methods and models, population and economic development selected as two major driving factors, and using the variation rule of per capita energy consumption during economic development in developed countries as reference, the future energy consumption for China was projected up to 2050. The results showed that: 1) China has great potential to increase per capita energy consumption and the cumulative per capita energy consumption. The probable per capita energy consumption range for China is 4.75-9.31 tce/cap in 2050, the upper limit equivalent to only 76% of the United States' per capita consumption peaks. And the probable energy consumption range for China is 6.19-12.13 billion tce in 2050. While the probable range of cumulative per capita energy consumption for China for 1870-2050 is 207-294 tce,the upper limit equivalent to only 46% of the United States' (56% of Germany and 57% of United Kingdom) cumulative per capita consumption during 1870-2012. 2) Currently, most studies showed that the probable energy consumption peak range for China will be in 2035-2040, with the peak value range of 6.2-7.9 billion tce. This paper argues that in addition to the United States, United Kingdom and Germany Scenarios, the other national scenarios will be unlikely peaked. 3) Under France Scenario the “zero” growth of China's energy consumption will occur around 2040, while Japan, South Korea and Baseline scenarios project that a slow growth period of China's energy consumption will occur after 2035, with growth rate about 2%. To sum up, France, Japan and South Korea scenarios are more reasonable and China's energy consumption is likely to enter a slow growth period since 2035. At present, the level of GDP per capita in China is not high, and the level of per capita energy consumption especially for cumulative per capita energy consumption is low, so it would put ourselves in a passive position in climate change negotiations if we are too optimistic about China's peak energy consumption time and value. Based on national conditions of China, we need to leave more energy consumption space for China's social economic development. Last but not least, actively promoting energy-efficient production and adopting an energy-efficient lifestyle will be the key for China's sustainable socio-economic development, energy security and respondence to global climate change.