| 地震灾害经济损失估算与预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 姜立新,傅征祥.地震灾害经济损失估算与预测方法[J].自然灾害学报,1995,4(4):27-33,95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姜立新 傅征祥 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局分析预报中心，国家地震局分析预报中心 北京 100036，北京 100036 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家地震局85-07-04-03-05课题的研究成果 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文通过对地震造成的社会环境物理破坏损失以及这种物理破坏导致的经济领域损失的分析，研究了直接经济损失预测方法，给出了地震人员死亡率和直接经济损失率的相关统计关系；并根据两种不同的经济分析模型，提出了地震灾害间接经济损失预测方法：经济计量模式和投入产出方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 灾害 经济损失 经济计量模式 预测法 |
A PREDICTION AND ESTIMATION MATHODS OF EARTHQUAKE LOSSES |
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| Jiang Lixin Fu Zhengxiang.A PREDICTION AND ESTIMATION MATHODS OF EARTHQUAKE LOSSES[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,1995,4(4):27-33,95. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Lixin Fu Zhengxiang |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, by analysing the physical devastion of social environment caused by earthquake and the economic field losses caused by this physical devastion, the prediction method of direct earthquake losses is studied, and the statistical relation between rate of death caused by earthquake and the direct losses are given. Besides, two prediction methods of indirect earthquake losses, i. e. the economic measurement model and the input-output model, are proposed based on two different economic analytical methods. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic hazard Economic losses Economic measurement model Input-output model |
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