北京市交通土地利用/覆盖变化驱动因子研究

为探讨北京市1996—2004年交通土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）驱动因子，从城市复合生态系统角度提出交通LUCC驱动因子的概念模型；采用相关分析、因子分析、多元逐步回归相耦合的模型对社会经济技术及政策行为和城市环境污染状况等驱动因子进行分析，其中入选的各社会经济指标与交通土地利用的相关系数接近或大于0.9，通过因子分析得到的3个公因子，第三产业回归系数最大（为6.132）；直接采用多元回归法对其他类型土地利用状况驱动因子进行分析，其回归模型中居民点及工矿用地面积的回归系数最大（为0.99）；采用定性分析法对城市生态承载力状况驱动因子进行分析.结果表明，北京市交通LUCC的驱动因子分别是社会经济技术及政策行为、城市环境污染状况、其他类型土地利用状况和城市生态承载力. 

Driving Forces Analysis of Transportation Land Use / Land Cover Change in Beijing

The land use/land cover change （LUCC） driving factors of traffic in Beijing from1996 to 2004 were investigated. Firstly, based on the theory of urban integrated ecosystem, a conceptual model of traffic LUCC driving factors was established.Then, the approach of correlation analysis, factor analysis and multivariate linear regression were used for the analysis of socio-economic factor of technology and policy factors and city environmental conditions driving factors. The results show that the correlation coefficients between selected socio-economic indicators and traffic land use were close to or greater than 0.9. Three common factors were obtained from factor analysis; the regression coefficient for the tertiary industry is the largest regression coefficient （6.132）. The multiple regression method was used for different types of land use. The results show that the regression coefficient of residents and mining area is largest （0.99）. The ecological capacity driving factor adopted qualitative analysis. The results showthat Beijing municipal traffic LUCC driving factors are the socio-economic technology and policy, city environmental conditions, conditions of other land use types, and city ecological carrying capacity.