人员疏散时间预测与分析

由于大量火灾事故的不断发生,火灾防范和安全疏散成为一个重要的研究课题。为了探讨人员疏散规律,笔者应用排队论知识及结合“社会力”模型,并综合考虑到建筑结构特征、人员密度及个体的作用和差异,建立了人员疏散模型。通过计算机模拟确定人员疏散时间,结合实例阐述了出口宽度等建筑结构特征、人员密度与疏散时间的关系,结果表明,该模型得到的结果与实际基本相符。通过对人员疏散规律的研究,可以帮助人们优化建筑物的内部结构,特别是门宽,疏散通道的个数,从而加快紧急情况时的疏散速度,减少人员的伤亡;还可以帮助人们设计出正确的管理措施,保证大规模的群众集会时的人员的安全。

Prediction and Analysis of Evacuation Time

Frequent occurrence of fire accidents makes the fire prevention and safe evacuation the important research topics.In order to investigate the rule of evacuation,evacuation model was established by queuing theory and social force model referring to building structure,occupant density and the individual difference.By computer simulation,the evacuation time was determined;combining with real case,the relation of evacuation time and building structure and occupant density was described.It was shown that the result obtained from the model complied with the real case.The study of the regularity of occupant movement might optimize the interior structure of the building,especially in determination of door width and number of exits so as to speed-up the evacuation when emergency and to reduce casualty.Moreover,it could help to design correct management measures for ensuring the security of people in public massive gathering.