Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios

Changes in global near-surface temperature and sea level are calculated from 2000 to 2100 for the Post-SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios that stabilize the CO₂ concentration early in the 22nd century. Seven stabilization scenarios are examined together with their corresponding SRES marker scenarios – A1, A1/S450, A1/S550, A1/S650, A2, A2/S550, A2/S750, B1, B1/S450, B2, and B2/S550 – where the number following the S indicates the stabilized CO₂ concentration in parts per million by volume (ppmv). The calculations are performed using an energy-balance-climate/upwelling-diffusion-ocean model for three values of the climate sensitivity, ΔT _2x =1.5, 2.5 and 4.5°C. The resulting reductions in global warming and sea-level rise for the stabilization scenarios relative to their corresponding marker scenario increases with ΔT _2x and are greater the lower the stabilized CO₂ concentration. For the S550 stabilization scenarios, the reductions in global warming and sea-level rise in 2100 range from 0.29°C and 3.31 cm for B2/S550 with ΔT _2x =1.5°C, to 1.23°C and 11.81 cm for A2/S550 with ΔT _2x =4.5°C. The percent reductions for the global warming and sea-level rise for each stabilization scenario are almost independent of ΔT _2x and range respectively from about 16% and 12% for the A1/S650 scenario to about 39% and 30% for the A1/S450 scenario. The geographical distributions of near-surface temperature change are constructed using a method to superpose the patterns simulated by our atmospheric general-circulation/mixed-layer-ocean model, individually for doubled CO₂ concentration and decupled SO₄ burden. Results are illustrated for the B2 and B2/S550 scenarios for ΔT _2x =2.5°C. The near-surface temperature changes of the B2/S550 scenario in 2100 are everywhere smaller than those for the B2 scenario, with values ranging from about 0.3°C in the tropics to 0.5°C over Antarctica and 0.7°C in the Arctic. The global results of this study are available on the web at: http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/research/post-sres.html. We would be pleased to collaborate with other researchers in using these results in impact and integrated-assessment studies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.