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Development of a probabilistic blood lead prediction model
Authors:Robert C Lee  James R Fricke  William E Wright  Walt Haerer
Institution:(1) Golder Associates Inc., 4104 148th Ave., N. E., 98105 Redmond, WA, USA;(2) ASARCO Inc., 3422 South 700 West, 84119 Salt Lake City, UT, USA
Abstract:A partially probabilistic blood lead prediction model has been developed, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency integrated exposure-uptake-biokinetic blood lead model (IEUBK model). This study translated the IEUBK model into a spreadsheet format. The uptake submodel incorporates uncertainty distributions for exposure and bioavailability parameters. The biokinetic submodel is duplicated with a table incorporating partitioning and decay of lead levels in the body. As a case study, the probabilistic model is applied to a lead exposure scenario involving a former smelter site in Sandy, Utah. The probabilistic model produces less biased estimates of means and standard deviations than the deterministic model. Parameter uncertainty is propagated in the model by the use of Monte Carlo simulation. Thus, sensitivity analysis is possible, and driving variables can be determined.
Keywords:Lead  exposure  probabilistic  Monte Carlo  risk
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