Uncertainties in source emission rate estimates using dispersion models |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Queensland University of Technology, International Laboratory for Air Quality & Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia;2. Queensland University of Technology, Science and Engineering Faculty, Brisbane, QLD, Australia;3. Norwegian Institute for Air Research, POB 100, N-2027 Kjeller, Norway;4. KZN Group, 12 St Georges Terrace, Perth, WA 6000;5. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;6. Queensland University of Technology, Institute for Future Environments, Brisbane, QLD, Australia;7. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA;8. Global Centre for Clean Air Research (GCARE), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, Surrey, United Kingdom;9. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong, China;10. Environmental Protection Department, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region, China;11. Climate and Atmospheric Science Branch, NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, NSW, Australia;12. School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China;13. Curtin Institute for Computation, Occupation and Environment, School of Public Health, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia;14. Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, Swinburne University of Technology, Hawthorn, VIC 3122, Australia;15. School of Business and Tourism, Southern Cross University, QLD, Australia |
| |
| Abstract: | The source emission rates during the Prairie Grass dispersion experiments were carefully observed and were adjusted by the experimentalists so that they were about twice as high during unstable conditions as during stable conditions. The question was asked whether observed concentrations and meteorological conditions could be used in dispersion models in order to predict source emission rates and verify this factor of two difference. Three types of simple dispersion models were applied to this problem, with the result that for the model based on Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, the uncertainties in predictions of source emission rates for individual runs were at best about ±10–20% when observed crosswind integrated concentrations from the 50m arc were used. Consequently this model could discern the factor of two difference in average source emission rates for the two sets of field trials which consisted of about 20 runs each. However, some models, such as the Gaussian plume model, exhibit uncertainties of about ±70% to a factor of two in predictions for individual runs, and hence could not discern the difference in average source emission rates when concentration observations at downwind distances of 100–800 m are used. It is found that the use of observed cross-wind integrated concentrations produces more accurate conclusions that the use of observed point concentrations, for the uncertainties in predictions of source emission rates are about a factor of two larger when the observed point concentrations are used. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
