Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070 |
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| Authors: | I A Romanenko V A Romanenkov P Smith J U Smith O D Sirotenko N V Lisovoi L K Shevtsova D I Rukhovich P V Koroleva |
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| Institution: | (1) All-Russian Institute of Agricultural Problems and Informatics, Kharitonievsky per., 21/6 Bld.1, 103064 Moscow, Russia;(2) Pryanishnikov All-Russian Institute of Agrochemistry (VNIIA), Pryanishnikova st., 31a, 127550 Moscow, Russia;(3) School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK;(4) All-Russian Institute of Agricultural Meteorology, Lenina st., 82, Obninsk, Kaluga Region, 249020, Russia;(5) Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research named after O.N. Sokolovsky, Chaikovskogo st., 4, 61024 Kharkiv-24, Ukraine;(6) Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute, Pyzhevsky Per.,7, 109017 Moscow, Russia |
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| Abstract: | This study estimates the consequences of climate change on cropland with and without implementation of adaptation measures,
paying special attention to the maintenance of soil organic carbon (C) stocks. We examine the possibility for regional sustainable
agricultural management practice that combines both maintenance and gain in soil carbon level with profit maximization. Future
scenarios of Regional Agricultural Production Systems (RAPS) were constructed for 2000–2070 based on linking the effects of
global climate change, predicted change in productivity parameters for the main agricultural crops, land-use and soil database
parameters. The RAPS were used to examine profitability and feasibility of alternative agricultural scenarios, based on an
economic model. A number of recommendations for decision making were proposed based on an assessment of the efficiency of
adaptation in animal husbandry and in the crop production sector, after analysis of current percentage of perennial grass
in rotation in comparison with future economic scenarios.
Figures in color are available at |
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| Keywords: | Sustainable agriculture Economic model Soil organic carbon Adaptation Climate change |
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