改进突变模型在地下水开发风险评价中的应用研究

地下水资源的不合理开采对生态环境和人类健康势必造成严重危害,对地下水开发利用进行有效的风险识别与评价,可为水资源综合规划和科学管理奠定基础和提供参考依据。本文以下辽河平原7个行政区域为研究区,构建适宜该区地下水开发风险评价的指标体系,基于改进的突变模型,计算研究区内各行政区的地下水开发风险综合值。结果表明,下辽河平原地下水开发风险较严重,在今后的开发利用过程中需采取有效措施,以实现地下水资源的可持续开发与利用。

Application of Catastrophe Theory in Risk Assessment for Groundwater Exploitation

Unreasonable exploitation brings serious harm on the ecological environment and human health. Therefore, it may provide a basis for water resources planning and management through the risk evaluation and identification of groundwater exploita- tion. This paper chooses seven administrative regions from lower Liao River as the study area and builds the index system of groundwater exploitation risk, then use the improved catastrophe theory to calculate the evaluation results of each administrative district in the study area. The results showed that the risk level of groundwater exploitation is generally high and we must take ef- fective measures to achieve the goal of sustainable use of groundwater resources.