| 能源消费、能源效率与中国经济增长的协整分析研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 蔡海霞.能源消费、能源效率与中国经济增长的协整分析研究[J].环境科学与管理,2014(2):9-13. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蔡海霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中原工学院系统与工业工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450007 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目《基于异质性主体行为的产业集群低碳演化模型及其仿真研究》（项目号：71271159）;河南省教育厅人文社会科学重点研究基地项目《能源与环境约束下的区域技术创新机制研究》（项目号：教社科[2013]403号） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用协整理论和基于误差修正模型的Granger因果关系检验分析了中国能源消费、能源效率和经济增长的关系。协整检验表明这三者之间存在长期协整关系,GDP和能源消费之间存在双向因果关系,而GDP和能源效率之间不存在因果关系。进一步脉冲响应函数分析结果表明,能源消费和GDP在长期内存在较强的双向正向效应;中国GDP在长期内对能源效率将会产生较强的正向效应,而能源效率则对GDP存在微弱的负向效应。
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| 关 键 词： | 能源消费 能源效率 经济增长 协整 |
Co- integration Analysis of Energy Consumption,Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth in China |
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| Cai Haixia.Co- integration Analysis of Energy Consumption,Energy Efficiency and Economic Growth in China[J].Environmental Science and Management,2014(2):9-13. |
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| Authors: | Cai Haixia |
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| Institution: | Cai Haixia (Systems and Industrial Engineering Technology Research Center, Zhongyuan University of Technology, Zhengzhou 450037, China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper uses co - integration theory and Granger causality test based on the Error Correction Model to analyze the relationship between China＇s energy consumption, energy efficiency and economic growth. Co -integration test shows that the existence of a long - term co - integration relationship between these three variables. There are bi - directional causality between second - order lag GDP and energy consumption, and there is no causal relationship between GDP and energy efficiency. Further impulse response function analysis results reveals that in the long - term energy consumption and GDP show strong positive effect to each other; China＇s GDP in the long term has a strong positive effect on energy efficiency, while energy efficiency has weak negative effects on GDP. |
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| Keywords: | energy consumption energy efficiency economic growth co - integration |
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