公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。

A Preliminary Discussion on the Public Disaster Risk Acceptance and the Disaster Avoidance Intention——A Case Study of Drought Risk in Sichuan and Chongqing Region

The public drought risk acceptance in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, is initially discussed, based on the review of previous achievements through field survey and interviews, which has multi-angle of view, such as the public acceptable of loss and frequency of drought risk, the risk acceptance judgments, the disaster avoidance intention under the assumptive drought risk scenes. The result shows that the acceptable drought loss is 26. 5% ～ 52.8%, and frequency is 32.0% ～ 64.3%, and also the reasonable acceptable risk region are defined, respectively using general drought risk and severe drought scenarios as the upper and lower limits. With the increasing of disaster risk loss, the public's investment willingness of risk avoidance takes on the trend that higher in the middle and lower in both sides. The investment willingness of risk avoidance reaches the high limit when the disaster loss is about 50% ～ 70% , risk avoidance investment will possibly occupy 62% of the possible loss. According to the drought situation in Sichuan-Chongqing region, the key measures of drought risk management in future are as follows: firstly, enhancing the monitoring and forecasting and early warning to the drought situation; secondly, improving conventional management of drought risk, developing highly effective irrigated farming, and taking full advantage of guest water resource, perfecting the construction of present irrigation and water conservancy; thirdly, trying to explore the highly effective risk management modes which can encourage the public-enterprises-government to participate together.