京津冀地区经济发展与PM10浓度变化的灰色关联分析

近几年,京津冀地区因灰霾天气频发而备受关注。通过分析京津冀地区PM10浓度变化与主要经济指标的关系,查找京津冀地区空气污染原因,并为今后污染控制措施提供参考。采用灰色关联分析法,对2007—2012年京津冀地区PM10与GDP、钢铁产量、煤炭消费总量、原油消费总量、天然气消费总量5项经济指标进行了分析,结果表明,在与本地经济指标的关联度方面,京津冀地区、北京市、天津市的PM10与煤炭消费总量相关性高;河北省略有不同,钢铁产量为关联度最高的经济指标。在与京津冀地区经济指标的关联度方面,相比本地,北京市、河北省均呈现较大差异性,天津市差异性较小,说明北京市、河北省空气质量受自身影响较大,天津市空气质量受区域传输影响明显。建议整个京津冀地区均应重点加大"控煤"力度,天津市还需加强区域联防联控力度,河北省应加快钢铁企业转型升级,压缩过剩产能。

The Grey Relational Analysis about Economic Development and Change of PM10's Concentration in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

In recent years, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region gain much attention for frequent dusthaze. Through analysing the relationship between main economic indicators and concentration change of PM₁₀ in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, the study is used to find causes of air pollution,provide suggestions for control in the future. It use the method of grey relational analysis to research relevance between PM₁₀ and five economic indicators in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the year 2007 to 2012 .The five economic indicators are GDP,Steel production,coal consumption,crude oil consumption and natural gas consumption. The results show that, on the grey relational analysis of local economic indicators, PM₁₀ and coal consumption has a high relation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Beijing,Tianjin. But Hebei is different, steel production is the highest correlation with PM₁₀. On the grey relational analysis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region economic indicators, compared with the local, Beijing and Hebei show great difference, the difference of Tianjin is relatively small. All these show that air quality of Beijing and Hebei is greatly influenced by their own, Tianjin is influenced by regional transmission. The suggestion is strengthening "coal control" for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, regional prevention and control for Tianjin, speeding up Iron and steel enterprises' transformation and upgrading, compressing overcapacity for Hebei.