基于国家粮食安全的长江三角洲地区耕地保护探讨

从经济增长规律与发展阶段来看，作为中国经济发展的核心区域之一，长江三角洲地区耕地的减少趋势还将持续一定时期。分析了长江三角洲地区粮食及耕地现状，通过相关性分析得到耕地预测模型，并预测了未来耕地变化态势，揭示出耕地损失率高峰值将在“十一五”期间出现。通过国家粮食安全的态势判断以及长江三角洲地区耕地减少与国家粮食安全之间的关系分析，得出长江三角洲地区耕地面积的减少所导致的粮食减产对国家粮食安全的影响较小，而国家粮食安全水平的变化会影响长江三角洲地区的粮食有效供给的结论。从而提出耕地保护的思路：“十一五”期间，长江三角洲地区应采取积极的保护政策；进入“十二五”之后，耕地保护政策应转为严格控制。为此，还提出了重在保护质量、保护其生态景观功能、加大后备资源开发、减少非农占用、加强政策管理等对策建议。

CULTIVATED LAND PROTECTION BASED ON NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

According to economy growth law and development stages,it is unavoidable that the cultivated land will reduce in the Yangtze River Delta as a central area for economy growth in China.The change of grain yield and cultivated land reduction with the economy development in the delta was analyzed by using method of correlation.A conclusion can be drawn that a high peak value of cultivated land conversion rate will appear in the period of "11th five-year plan".Based on national food security judgment,development forecast and the relation between cultivated land and national food security,some suggestions were put forward to protect cultivated land: positive protection policy must be inforced in the Yangtze River Delta during the period of "11th five-year plan",and protection policy should be turned out into strict control during the period of "12th five-year plan".Furthermore,some countermeasures on cultivated land protection were suggested,such as to qualitatively protect cultivated land,to protect eco-landscape function,to increase the exploitation of reserve resource, to reduce non-agricultural cultivated land occupation,and to strengthen the policy management.