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A discrete model for estimating the development time from egg to infecting larva of Ostertagia ostertagi parametrized using a fuzzy rule-based system
Authors:Mauro AE Chaparro  Graciela A Canziani
Institution:a Multidisciplinary Institute on Ecosystems and Sustainable Development, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, (UNCPBA), Pinto 399, B7000GHG Tandil, Argentina
b CONICET, Rivadavia 1917, C1033AAJ Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina
Abstract:Ostertagia ostertagi is a nematode, predominantly affecting cattle in the Pampean region of Argentina. A mathematical model parametrized using fuzzy rule-based systems of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kant type (FTSK) for estimating the development time from egg to infecting larval stage L3 of the gastrointestinal parasite O. ostertagi is here proposed. The estimation of development time of O. ostertagi is essential for the generation of appropriate control mechanisms, since this provides information about the time when parasites are ready to migrate to pastures. For the purpose of reflecting the natural environmental conditions, the mean daily temperature is taken as the main and only regulator of the development time. Humidity conditions are considered to be sufficient for the normal development of the larvae. Hence the individual's daily growth is a function of its length and the mean temperature recorded on the previous day. It is expressed in terms of a difference equation with fuzzy parameters, which are defined using laboratory data. Model outputs are tested against results of field experiments. Simulation results are very satisfactory, yielding a mean estimation error (MEE) of 0.64 weeks, with variance 0.34, and a determination coefficient R2 = 0.74. The model clearly exhibits an inverse relationship between development time and temperature both in controlled and in field conditions. It also exhibits a very sensitive response both to the order in which the temperature sequence occurs, - reproducing the differences observed between spring and autumn - and to the amplitude of the temperature range.
Keywords:Ostertagia ostertagi  Development time  Takagi-Sugeno-Kant Fuzzy Models  Growth performance
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