An econometric model of the international bauxite-aluminium economy

This simultaneous equation model emphasizes oligopolistic and vertical integration features, and conflict between companies and some bauxite producer country governments. Estimates do not support Koyck lags, or big gaps between long- and short-term elasticities. Strongest influence is industrial activity in advanced countries. Price and substitution elasticities are low. With an 11 year horizon, cartelization gains are high. In the longer term, Australia's participation in, or exclusion from the cartel, and cartelization gains, are strictly interdependent, and dependent on Australia following policies as a bauxite producer, or, more realistically, as an aluminum producer (which makes cartel perspectives poor).