大型社会活动安全风险评估指标研究

在对大型社会活动特点及其活动增长趋势分析的基础上,通过对大型社会活动典型伤亡事故的统计,将事故发生直接原因归纳为突发自然灾害、设备设施故障、管控措施失误、疏散设施不符合要求、人为事件和其他因素6类;根据风险管理理论,针对大型社会活动安全风险,从人-机-环-管安全系统工程的观点出发,以准确反映大型社会活动的本质特征和事故预防与控制为目标、尽可能量化为原则,提出具有4个一级指标、9个二级指标和24个三级指标的大型社会活动安全风险评估指标体系和评估依据,并对周边环境、人群密度、疏散速度及人群状况指标进行量化分级。

Study on Risk Assessment Index System for Large-scale Activity Security

Based on the analysis of characteristics of mega social events and the growing trend in recent years,the direct causes for large-scale activity accidents are summed up to be sudden natural disasters,equipment and facilities failure,control measures errors,inadequate evacuation facilities,man-made events and other factors.According to risk management theory and the risk of social activity security,a risk assessment index system for large-scale activity security,which reflects the essential characters of social events,the goal of accident-control and the principle of quantification,is put forth from safety system engineering of "man-machine-environment".The index system contains 4 first-level indicators,9 second-level indicators,and 24 third-level indicators.Finally,the surrounding situation,population density and evacuating speed are quantitatively graded.