| 基于回归分析的群集疏散时间模型优化研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈建宏,代伟,李志江. 基于回归分析的群集疏散时间模型优化研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2011, 21(8) |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈建宏 代伟 李志江 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙,410083
2. 中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083;中南财经政法大学信息与安全工程学院,湖北武汉430073 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高国际上通用的疏散时间模型(简称经验模型)的仿真度,将人员的属性因素(自然属性和社会属性)影响纳入时间模型,采用回归分析方法,以某高校大型大学生艺术中心疏散案例为研究基础,通过调查采样建立185组数据的实测样本。结合影响人员疏散行为和疏散时间相关因素,运用统计软件SPSS17.0对样本进行回归分析,建立疏散时间回归模型。以回归模型为基础,将个体属性综合为群集属性,求取修正系数并对经验模型进行修正、检验。结果表明:利用回归分析和修正系数对疏散时间经验模型进行修正,可有效弥补经验模型缺乏考虑群集属性影响的弱点,提高经验模型的仿真度和应用价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 回归分析 群集 应急疏散 时间模型 优化 |
Optimization of Time Model of Crowd Emergency Evacuation Based on Regression Analysis |
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| CHEN Jian-hong,DAI Wei,LI Zhi-jiang. Optimization of Time Model of Crowd Emergency Evacuation Based on Regression Analysis[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2011, 21(8) |
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| Authors: | CHEN Jian-hong DAI Wei LI Zhi-jiang |
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| Affiliation: | CHEN Jian-hong1 DAI Wei1,2 LI Zhi-jiang1(1 School of Resources & Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha Hunan410083,China2 School of Information & Safety Engineering,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan Hubei430073,China) |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at improving the simulation degree of evacuation time model(briefly called empirical model) generally accepted by the world,the influences of individual attributes(including natural and social attributes) are analyzed.Based on regression analysis and the evacuation investigation on a large university gymnasium,a 185-set-data sample is established.Combined with the factors that affect evacuation behavior and time of individuls,the regression model of crowd evacuation time is built with the statistical... |
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| Keywords: | regression analysis crowd emergency evacuation time model optimization |
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