| 基于随机Petri网的城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋宇博,牟海波,蒋兆远.基于随机Petri网的城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(9). |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋宇博 牟海波 蒋兆远 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 兰州交通大学机电技术研究所,甘肃兰州,730070
2. 兰州交通大学交通运输学院,甘肃兰州,730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 为分析城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能,采用随机Petri网理论,考虑运营生产、治安消防和自然灾害3类应急预案,构建城市轨道交通应急系统的随机Petri网模型,并基于模型的马尔科夫链得到系统处于各种状态时的稳态概率表达式,通过改变各个变迁的触发速率,分析系统各种状态稳态概率的变化情况。结果表明,这个模型能够体现影响城市轨道交通应急系统安全性能的各因素之间的关系,并能通过数值变化趋势反映不同事故情况下提高安全性能的关键所在,达到分析系统安全性能的目的。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市轨道交通 安全性能分析 随机Petri网 稳态概率 马尔科夫链 |
Safety Performance Analysis of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Stochastic Petri Net |
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| SONG Yu-bo,MOU Hai-bo,JIANG Zhao-yuan.Safety Performance Analysis of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Stochastic Petri Net[J].China Safety Science Journal,2011,21(9). |
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| Authors: | SONG Yu-bo MOU Hai-bo JIANG Zhao-yuan |
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| Institution: | SONG Yu-bo1 MOU Hai-bo2 JIANG Zhao-yuan1(1 Mechatronic Technology Institute,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou Gansu 730070,China 2 School of Traffic & Transportation,China) |
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| Abstract: | To analyze performance of the urban rail transit emergency response system,a stochastic Petri net model is given by adopting Petri net theory and taking into account three kinds of emergency plans,namely,operation and production,public security and fire,and natural disasters.The expressions of this system's steady-state probabilities under various states are obtained by Markov chain,and the variations of the probability are analyzed by changing the fire rates of each transition.The results show that,the rel... |
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| Keywords: | urban rail transit safety performance analysis stochastic Petri net steady-state probability Markov chain |
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