环渤海地区空气质量时空变化特征及动态预测

基于环渤海地区2017—2021年各城市空气质量指数(AQI)、污染物浓度与社会经济数据,利用数理统计、克里金插值法对环渤海地区AQI与污染物浓度的时空变化特征进行分析,运用皮尔逊相关性分析方法探讨AQI与污染物浓度、社会经济因素的相关关系,采用时间序列预测模型对2022年6月—2023年12月空气质量及污染物浓度进行预测。结果表明:环渤海地区AQI及污染物浓度大致呈逐年降低的趋势。AQI的逐月变化呈"W"形,O₃浓度的年内变化呈倒"V"形,其余污染物则呈现与O₃相反的变化趋势。AQI大致呈现西南高、东北低的空间分布特点,而污染物浓度分布具有明显的空间差异。环渤海地区5个代表性城市的AQI类别以良好为主,冬季首要污染物主要为PM_2.5、PM₁₀,夏季首要污染物以O₃为主。人口数量是影响AQI的主要因素,城市园林绿地面积对AQI具有一定影响。预测结果显示,未来环渤海地区AQI、主要污染物浓度(O₃除外)均呈现出随时间的推移逐渐下降的变化趋势。

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Dynamic Prediction of Air Quality in the Bohai Rim Region

Based on the air quality index (AQI),pollutant concentration and socio-economic data of cities in Bohai Rim region from 2017 to 2021,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of AQI and pollutant concentration in Bohai Rim region were analyzed by mathematical statistics and kriging interpolation method,and the correlation between AQI and pollutant concentration and socio-economic factors was discussed by Pearson correlation analysis method.The air quality and pollutant concentration from June 2022 to December 2023 were predicted by time series prediction model.The results showed that the AQI and pollutant concentration in Bohai Rim region generally decreased annually.The monthly change of AQI showed a "W" shaped fluctuation.During the year,the concentration of O₃ showed an inverted "V" shaped fluctuation,while the concentration of other pollutants showed an opposite trend to O₃.AQI was generally characterized by high in southwest and low in northeast,while the pollutant concentration had obvious spatial distribution differences.The AQI grades of five representative cities around Bohai Rim were mainly good,with PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ as the main pollutants in winter and O₃ as the main pollutants in summer.Population was the main factor affecting AQI,and the area of urban garden green space had certain influence on AQI.The forecast results showed that the concentrations of AQI and major pollutants except O₃ in the Bohai Rim region will gradually decrease with time.