基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型

在贝叶斯水质评价模型中引入区间数表示污染物浓度,采用区间排序法对水质评价结果进行比较,建立了区间型贝叶斯湖泊水质评价模型。同时将该模型应用于某湖泊的5个采样点进行水质监测及评价,结果显示,5个采样点水质逐渐变差,均为劣V类。基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型更加直观地表示了同类水质采样点的水质差别,避免了传统方法中主观因素的影响,为属于同类别水质的采样点排序提供了评价依据。

THE MODEL OF WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT FOR LAKES BASED ON INTERVAL TYPE BAYESIAN

In order to deal with the uncertainty in the process of water quality assessment，interval numbers were used to represent the concentrations of pollutants in Bayesian water quality assessment model． The ranking-method of interval numbers was adopted to compare the results of water quality assessment． Then the interval Bayesian model of water quality assessment was established． The model was applied to water quality assessment of a lake，and the water quality of five sampling sites of the lake were monitored and assessed． The monitoring results showed that the water quality of the five sampling points was the V category of the water quality standard． The model of water quality assessment based on interval Bayesian model could more intuitively express the difference of the similar water qualities which attached to the same level of the water quallity， and also could avoid the influence of subjective factors in traditional method． So，the model established in this paper could provide a theoretical basis for the evaluation of different sampling sites belong to the same class of water quality．