近50年湖北省降水变化特征分析

在气候变化背景下，区域降水变化波动较大。湖北地处亚热带，位于典型的季风区内，旱涝灾害比较突出，特别是水患，历来是威胁湖北的一大灾害，因此对降水时空变化进行分析研究，有很现实的意义。利用1961年以来全省65站逐日降水观测资料为基础，根据气候特征和行政区划将湖北省进行区域划分，利用多种统计分析方法，以揭示在全球气候变暖背景下湖北省各区域的降水变化事实。结果表明：湖北省平均年降水量鄂西北最少，鄂东南最多，秋季降水量的减少和冬季降水量的增加最为显著；极端降水事件的变化中，鄂西北发生站次最多，江汉平原其次，鄂西南和鄂东南最少。该结论为湖北各区域的旱涝变化趋势预估、为水资源管理和防汛抗旱工作提供科学的参考

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF PRECIPITATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE RECENT 50 YEARS

In the context of climate change,the randomness of regional precipitation is very changeable.Hubei is in the typical area of monsoon,and the droughts and floods in Hubei are more prominent.There was a very real sense of precipitation analysis about time and space distribution.Based on the daily observation date of 65 metrological stations in Hubei province from 1961 to 2010,a variety of statistical methods were used to to reveal the fact.The results showed that average annual precipitation was at least in thwestern,and the most in southeastern.The reduced precipitation in autumn and the increased precipitation in winter were significant,the extreme precipitation events were very discrepant and the distribution was different in Hubei province.The conclusion could provide scientific reference to water management and flood control and drought in Hubei Province.