流域水生态系统完整性模拟方法展望

水生态系统完整性变化模拟是流域水生态退化诊断、风险预警和修复重建的基础。受到多种环境压力的叠加影响,水生态系统完整性状态具有累积性、复合性和滞后性的响应特征,难以采用常规静态实验和水质模型进行表征和预测。梳理了国内外该领域最新进展,按照水生生物、生态系统动力学、栖息地适宜性、统计经验、流域水系统耦合等5类模型,阐明了不同类型模型的基本原理、适用性和应用案例。结果表明:我国环境管理亟需水生态系统完整性模拟工具支撑,应围绕该领域开展重大科学基础研究,突破河湖水生生物模拟预测和多尺度耦合关键技术,加快构建具有自主知识产权的水生态系统完整性模型库和参数库,推动建设我国流域水生态系统模拟器大科学装置,支撑构建长江、黄河等重点河流水生态系统综合管理体系。

PROSPECTS OF SIMULATION METHODS FOR WATERSHED AQUATIC ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY

Aquatic ecosystem simulation is the basis of the diagnosis of water ecological degradation,risk early-warning,and restoration.Under the superposition of various environmental pressures,the water ecosystem integrity state often shows the response characteristics of accumulation,complexity and lag,which is difficult to be characterized and predicted by conventional static experiments and water quality models.In this paper,the latest progress of water ecological simulation was reviewed,and the basic principles,applicability and application cases of different models were clarified according to five types of models including aquatic biology,ecosystem dynamics,habitat suitability,statistical experience and watershed water system coupling.Results showed that China's environmental management urgently needs the support of water ecosystem integrity simulation tools.We should carry out major basic scientific research in this field,break through the key technologies of river and lake aquatic biological simulation prediction and multi-scale coupling,accelerate the construction of water ecosystem integrity model database and parameters'database with independent intellectual property rights,promote the construction of large scientific devices of river basin water ecosystem simulation in China,and support the construction of comprehensive water ecosystem management system of key rivers such as the Yellow River and the Yangtze River.