脆弱生态区评价的理论与方法

由于脆弱生态区的脆弱性不仅表现为其内部结构的不稳定,而且还表现在它对外界干扰反应的敏感上,脆弱生态区的现状、发展趋势及其稳定性都是其脆弱性固有属性的表现形式,因此,脆弱生态区的评价也就应该包括脆弱生态区的现状评价、趋势评价和稳定性评价等。论文在对脆弱生态区重新界定的基础上,以模糊评价理论对脆弱生态区的现状、以灰色预测和趋势函数法对脆弱生态区的发展趋势、以非线性理论对脆弱生态区的稳定性进行评价。

Assessment of vulnerable ecological regions:Theory and methodology

The interior structure of vulnerable ecological regions is instable and these regions are hypersensitive to the exterior disturbances.Actually,their development trends and stability are the inherent forms of vulnerable ecological regions' basic properties.Therefore,the assessment of vulnerable ecological regions should include three parts:assessment of status quo,assessment of development trend and assessment of stability.Base d on new concept of vulnerable ecological re-gions,this paper assesses the status quo by fuzzy theory and predicts its develop ment trend by grey theory.Non-linear theories are applied to assess stabilities of vulnerable eco logical regions for the first time and the effect is very well.