A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model |
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Authors: | Richard A Erickson Steven M Presley Linda JS Allen Kevin R Long |
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Institution: | a Department of Environmental Toxicology, Texas Tech University, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX, USA b The Institute of Environmental and Human Health, Texas Tech University, Box 41163, Lubbock, TX, USA c Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University, Box 41042, Lubbock, TX, USA |
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Abstract: | Aedes albopictus has been the fastest spreading invasive animal species in the world from the mid-1980s until the mid-2000s. In areas it infests, it disrupts native mosquito ecology and can potentially vector up to 21 viruses. To better understand the population dynamics of this species, we created a temperature dependent population model. A stage-structured model was chosen to allow each life-stage to have different temperature dependent mortality and development rates, and each stage was modeled with an ordinary differential equation. Model parameters and distributions were based upon literature values. Initially, a basic model was constructed. This model then had parameters that were forced based upon daily average temperatures. Several criteria were used to evaluate the model, including a comparison to field data from Lubbock, TX. In a stochastic version of the model, a 95% confidence limit contained 70.7% of the field data points. Based upon these results, we feel reasonably confident that we have captured the role of temperature in driving the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus. |
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Keywords: | Disease vector Invasive species Medical entomology Mosquito ecology |
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