Towards carrying capacity assessment for aquaculture in the Bolinao Bay, Philippines: A numerical study of tidal circulation

The increase in intensive aquaculture production in the Bolinao Bay, Philippines reached the point of harmful influence to production stock. Up to the present, there has been no estimation of aquaculture carrying capacity which is based on quantification of processes responsible for (a) water quality inside the units, (b) impact to the seabed and (c) water quality in the whole Bolinao Bay. The numerical estimation of tidal circulation, which is the most dominant part of the hydrodynamical regime in the Bolinao Bay, represents an unavoidable step in the carrying capacity determination considering points (a), (b) and (c). The hydrodynamical model we apply is a free surface, 3D finite element tidal model, forced with sea elevation dynamics at three open boundaries. It incorporates an increase in bottom stress drag coefficients in the coral areas and advanced transport corrected advection scheme. The model simulations of water flow show good agreement with measured currents in the central part of the Bolinao Bay, southern and northeastern channel, while agreement in the areas in vicinity of northern channel is not as tight. In order to provide an insight into the water exchange in aquaculture units, to support local water quality models and seabed deposition models (points (a) and (b)), the area is mapped with neap tide mean, spring tide mean and 14-day mean current velocity contours. The highest 14-day mean velocities are attained in the southern channel (>17 cm s⁻¹), while the mean velocities characteristic for northern part (<6 cm s⁻¹) and shallow areas of coral reefs (<2 cm s⁻¹) are much lower. Area-mean difference between spring tide and 14-day mean velocities is estimated to be 18.32% (std=7.31%), while difference between neap tide and 14-day mean velocities is 17.62 % (std=11.19%). To support global basin-wide water quality models (point (c)), retention of water in the bay is estimated by Lagrangian and Eulerian calculation procedure of mean residence time field. Both calculations estimate the highest (no-wind) residence times (Lan: 25.4 days, Eul: 21.03 days) in the central northern part, but most of the area (Lan: 73.11%, Eul: 79.31%) is characterized by residence time values significantly lower than 15 days. The results are readily applicable for upcoming implementation in the models of local (aquaculture units, seabed) and basin-wide (Bolinao Bay) nutrient dynamics, primary and secondary production, organic matter decomposition and oxygen dynamics.