Modelling the effects of extreme events on the dynamics of the amphipod Corophium orientale |
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Authors: | Sofia Gamito Paula Chainho João Paulo Medeiros João Carlos Marques |
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Institution: | a IMAR - Institute of Marine Research, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of the Algarve, Campus de Gambelas, 8005-139 Faro, Portugal b Centre of Oceanography, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lisbon, Campo Grande, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal c IMAR - Institute of Marine Research, Department of Zoology, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, University of Coimbra, 3004-517 Coimbra, Portugal |
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Abstract: | The brackish water amphipod Corophium orientale is the dominant macroinvertebrate species in the upper Mira estuary, a small mesotidal system located in the southwest coast of Portugal. As climate changes will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts, these will have a negative effect on benthic estuarine invertebrates, namely C. orientale. In order to understand the effects of these events on C. orientale, a dynamic model, based on published information and calibrated with field data, was developed and different scenarios were tested.For model construction, the annual development of three cohorts of C. orientale, their growth rates, and the establishment of the timing of each cohort rise and extinction are introduced. This structure can be repeated indefinitely, for years, and few parameters are required. The model simulations highlight the need for refuge areas that enable a fast recovery of the amphipod population after an extreme event and the recolozination of the affected areas. |
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Keywords: | Stella modelling Extreme events Floods Droughts Corophium orientale population dynamics Mira estuary |
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