Deterministic-statistical Model Coupling in a DSS for River-Basin Management |
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Authors: | Jean-Luc de Kok Martijn J Booij |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | This paper presents a method for appropriate coupling of deterministic and statistical models. In the decision-support system
for the Elbe river, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to obtain the discharge statistics and corresponding average
number of flood days, which is a key input variable for a rule-based model for floodplain vegetation. The required quality
of the discharge time series cannot be determined by a sensitivity analysis because a deterministic model is linked to a statistical
model. To solve the problem, artificial discharge time series are generated that mimic the hypothetical output of rainfall-runoff
models of different accuracy. The results indicate that a feasible calibration of the rainfall-runoff model is sufficient
to obtain consistency with the vegetation model in view of its sensitivity to changes in the number of flood days in the floodplains. |
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