中国1990~2004年生态足迹动态变化效应的分解分析

通过构建生态足迹分解模型,论文将中国1990~2004年生态足迹的动态变化分解为经济规模、产业结构和足迹强度这3种因素的变化效应,并对各分解效应进行了测度与分析。结果表明:生态足迹年度间变化均值为1.065 5×10⁸hm²。其中,由经济规模、产业结构和足迹强度所引起的足迹变化分别为2.108 2×10⁸hm²,-0.439 8×10⁸hm²和-0.602 9×10⁸hm²。总的看,经济规模的变化助长了总足迹的增长,而足迹强度和产业结构的变化对总足迹的扩张起到了一定的遏制作用。生态足迹变化是由各因素共同作用的结果,而在不同时期各因素对足迹变化所发挥的效应不同。该研究结果对于理解我国生态足迹变化与经济发展之间的关系,以及产业发展政策调整及可持续发展研究具有一定参考价值。

Decomposition Effect on China's Annual Ecological Footprints Variation from 1990 to 2004

There is a certain impact and influence on the ecological environment when human utilizes natural resources and obtain access to the ecological services function nature provides. Ecological footprint indicator is such an integrated indicator to measure the use of human resources and the effects on the ecological environment. The ecological footprint is not only a means to record the process of the survival and development of mankind’s ecological resources of changing history, but also embodies the scale of economic development and the evolution of consumption levels for each stage. Through building the decomposition model of ecological footprint, variable of ecological footprints of China during the period from 1990 to 2004 was decomposed to three different changing effects, namely GDP, structure of industry economy and ecological footprint identity of industries, and each decomposition effect was measured and analyzed in this study.The results show that: 1) Varied factors impacted together on variation of ecological footprints and these factors exerted different effects on the variable of general ecological footprints in different periods of time. From 1990 to 2004 the total footprint changes always show an increasing trend. Inter-annual change’ mean of ecological footprint is 2.1082×10⁸ha, thereinto, the scale of economic development, the industrial structure and the identity of industries ecological footprint have different contributions to the change, being 2.1082×10⁸ha, -0.6029×10⁸ha and -0.4398×10⁸ha respectively. 2) Growth of GDP is a drive to the increase of the general ecological footprints, while the change in industrial structure and increase of ecological footprint identity of industries constrain the growth of the general ecological footprints variation on the contrary. 3) It is a key in depression periods of time to reduce growth of ecological footprints by adjusting structure of industry economy and improving identity of ecological footprint. This research will promote understanding the theory about harmonous development stratagem and development occasions, and possess reference value by all means to the adjustment of policy of industrial development and the study of sustainable development relatively.