北部湾水文气象极值参数研究

本文基于WRF海面风场动力模式、SWAN海浪模式和ECOM三维海流数值模式，计算了1992~2011年的热带气旋影响下，发现了波高极值与增水极值发生时刻的不一致性这一规律。北部湾百年一遇极值波浪、风速、海流和增水的特征值:百年一遇极值波高在北部湾南部最大，超过10.5 m，向北减小；极值周期的分布特征与极值波高相似，在北部湾南部最大，达到11.5 s，向北减小；百年一遇风速，在北部湾北部和南部有两个大值区，可以达到39 m/s，中西部相对较小；百年一遇极值流速，在北部湾四周较大，而东边较西边更大，海南岛的东方市附近超过了300 cm/s；百年一遇极值增水普遍超过160 cm，北部可以达到340 cm，呈现由北向南的递减特征。

Studies of hydro-meteorological return level in Beibu gulf

Using WRF, SWAN, and ECOM numerical models, this paper calculated one hundred return levels of wave height, wave period, wind speed, current velocity, and surge level based on the influence of tropical cyclones on Beibu gulf during 1992~2011. It is found that the occurring time of extreme wave height and extreme surge level is different. Besides, the distribution characteristics of 100 a return period of wind speed, wave height, wave period, current velocity and surge level have been researched. Wave height is high up to 10.5 m in the south, decreasing northward. Wave period's distribution is similar to wave height, and the biggest value is up to 11.5 s in the south, decreasing northward. In the distribution of wind speed, there are two big value areas up to 39 m/s in the north and south of Beibu gulf, and midwestern areas are relatively small. Current velocity in the rim of Beibu gulf is bigger than medium area, and it is the biggest in the east, up to 300 cm/s nearby Dongfang city. Surge level is generally bigger than 160 cm, and it is up to 340 cm in the northern area, decreasing southward.