| 基于AIC准则优选 AR 模型研究我国生产事故 |
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| 引用本文： | 镡志伟,彭景,白福利. 基于AIC准则优选 AR 模型研究我国生产事故[J]. 工业安全与环保, 2009, 35(6) |
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| 作者姓名： | 镡志伟 彭景 白福利 |
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| 作者单位： | 广东省安全科学技术研究所,广州,510620;江苏省元之臻工程咨询,有限公司,南京,210003;中国劳动关系学院,北京,100048 |
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| 摘 要： | 目前,由于生产力水平低,安全投入不足,安全监管体制不健全等因素,国内生产安全事故仍然居高不下.将基于AIC准则进行 AR 模型优选的方法应用到我国工矿死亡人数预测中,为事故预测统计提供一种新方法,预测结果将为预防生产安全事故提供依据.
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| 关 键 词： | AIC检验准则 AR模型 安全生产 事故预测 |
Applying AR Model Based on AIC Evaluation Criterions to Predict Mine Accidents in China |
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| TAN Zhi-Wei,PENG Jing,BAI Fu-Li. Applying AR Model Based on AIC Evaluation Criterions to Predict Mine Accidents in China[J]. Industrial Safety and Dust Control, 2009, 35(6) |
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| Authors: | TAN Zhi-Wei PENG Jing BAI Fu-Li |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Guangdong Provincial Research Institute of Safety Science and Technology;Guangzhou 510620 |
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| Abstract: | At present there still constantly happen safety accidents in China due to low productivity,shortage of safety input,imperfect safety supervision system and so on.AR model based on AIC evaluation criterions is applied in mine deaths forecast in our country,providing a new method for accident forecast statistics and the forecast results can offer basis for the prevention of safety accidents. |
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| Keywords: | AIC evaluation criterions AR model safety in production accident forecast |
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