Environmental breaches and resource losses in a Mexican biosphere reserve and development of a simple resource management model

SUMMARY

The causes for environmental breaches producing losses to the forest resources in the biosphere reserve Mariposa Monarca in Mexico have been investigated, mainly using methods of spatial analysis. It was demonstrated that the availability of forest resources themselves does not affect the frequency of breaches but does have consequences on the amount of resource loss per breach. Furthermore, a strong dependency on the traffic ways was demonstrated. The larger the distance to the traffic ways, the lower is the frequency of breaches. This behaviour could be described mathematically and led to the result that 38% of the breaches can be considered as caused by traffic ways. A weak dependency on the number of inhabitants could be found but no dependency on socioeconomic parameters. Taking into account the results of this analysis, a simple resource management model was developed, using a differential equation. It estimates the future development of natural resources. The model is implemented in a Geographic Information System. Sample calculations underline the importance of the supervising actions and show the possibilities of the model with respect to the measures that have to be taken to preserve natural resources in a supervised national park.