耕地利用集约度变化及其驱动因素分析——以湖北省为例

耕地利用集约度的变化关系到粮食安全和社会经济的可持续发展。运用逐步回归和通径分析等多元统计分析方法，对湖北省1990年至2008年的耕地利用集约度变化的驱动机制进行研究。研究表明，耕地利用集约度总体上稳中有升；农产品价格、耕地质量和财政支农是影响耕地利用集约度的主要因素；农产品价格、耕地质量和财政支农政策既是影响耕地利用集约度的直接原因，又是其他因素对耕地利用集约度影响的间接原因；在市场经济条件下，农民的耕地利用行为表现出市场化的趋势。因此，应稳定并逐步提高农产品价格，保障土地整理实施的质量，改善耕地质量，并加大政策对农业的扶持力度，从而提高农民农业生产积极性和耕地利用集约度、提升农民收入和保障国家粮食安全

ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY DEGREE CHANGE OF CULTIVATED LAND USE AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS IN HUBEI

The change of the cultivated land use intensive degree is related to the food security and social and economic sustainable development.In this paper,by using the multivariate statistical analysis methods of stepwise regression and path-coefficient analysis and so on,we carried out a study of the driving mechanism of the change of the cultivated land use intensive degree in Hubei Province from 1990 to 2008.The results showed that: the intensity degree change of cultivated land use increased steadily.The prices of agricultural products,cultivated land quality and the fiscal policy to support agriculture were the main factors to influence the cultivated land use intensive degree.The above three factors were not only the direct cause to influencing the cultivated land use intensive degree,but also the indirect cause of other factors,which also had an influence on the cultivated land use intensive degree.Under the market economy condition,the farmers’ cultivated land use behaviors had showed a marketization trend.Consequently,we should enhance the agricultural prices gradually,ensure the quality of land consolidation implementation,improve the quality of cultivated land,and intensify the policy efforts to support the agriculture,in order to improve the famers’ agriculture production enthusiasm and the cultivated land use intensive degrees,and promote the farmers’ income and ensure the national food security.