| 采场整体稳定性可靠度分析与风险预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘增辉,高谦,姚维信,靳学奇. 采场整体稳定性可靠度分析与风险预测[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2012, 0(8): 70-77 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘增辉 高谦 姚维信 靳学奇 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽理工大学能源与安全学院;北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院;金川集团公司 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金面上项目(51074003);国家高科技研究发展计划(“863”)项目(2008AA062104);国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(2008BAB32B01);安徽高校省级自然科学研究重点资助项目(KJ2011A080) |
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| 摘 要： | 为研究金川二矿区采场整体围岩的稳定性,采用数值模拟方法研究影响采场整体围岩的稳定性的13个因素之间的关系。采取最小二乘法对试验结果进行多元线性回归,获得4个评价指标函数。利用可靠度理论进行采场稳定性可靠度分析和失稳风险预测,获得采场围岩的能量释放率(ERR)、地表沉降率(SDR)、采场围岩和充填体收敛率(DCR)和平均屈服率(AFR)4个评价指标,对应的失稳风险分别为7.5%,0.78%,3.02%和0.32%。采用4个评价指标的串联模式系统综合分析采场围岩整体稳定性,计算出采场整体失稳风险概率为11.28%,表明采场整体存在失稳风险,需要进一步监测岩体移动。
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| 关 键 词： | 采场整体稳定性 评价指标 正交试验 可靠度 风险预测 |
Reliability Analysis and Risk Prediction of the Stope Overall Stability |
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| LIU Zeng-hui,GAO Qian,YAO Wei-xin,JIN Xue-qi. Reliability Analysis and Risk Prediction of the Stope Overall Stability[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2012, 0(8): 70-77 |
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| Authors: | LIU Zeng-hui GAO Qian YAO Wei-xin JIN Xue-qi |
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| Affiliation: | 1 School of Energy Sources and Safety,Auhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan Anhui 232001,China 2 School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Beijing University of Science and Technology,Beijing 100083,China 3 Jinchuan Group Limited,Jinchang Gansu 737100,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to study the stope overall stability of Jinchuan No.2 mine area,the relationship among the 13 factors influencing the overall stope surrounding rock stability was studied using numerical simulation.The evaluation functions of the 4 indexes were obtained.Reliability theory used to analyze reliability of the stope stability and predict the risk of losing stability.The results show that the energy releasing rate(ERR),the surface displacement rate(SDR),the displacement convergence rate(DCR),and the averaging failure rate(AFR) of stope surrounding rock correspond to the probability of risk of losing stability 7.5%,0.78%,3.02% and 0.32% respectively,that the probability of overall risk of losing stability of large area continuous mining stope is 11.28%,and that the stope faces an overall risk of losing stability,the displacement of rock mass should be further monitored. |
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| Keywords: | stope overall stability evaluation index orthogonal test reliability analysis risk prediction |
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