| 用水化资料对南黄海6.1级地震的预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 唐振芳,徐玉华. 用水化资料对南黄海6.1级地震的预测[J]. 防灾减灾工程学报, 1997, 0(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 唐振芳 徐玉华 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省地震分析预报中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据区域水氡平均年离散度变化及应用“地下流体预报方法ＳＨＥＰ软件”，对水化资料和一些Ｒｎ，Ｃｌ－，Ｃａ２＋单项异常进行综合分析，于１９９６年１０月提出：从１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年下半年，在南长带海域（尤其是东经１２１°±１°，北纬３３°±１°的区域）有发生Ｍｓ６．０级左右地震的可能，要特别注意１９９６年１０月下旬至１９９７年上半年（信度ＣＦ＝０．６）。本次南黄海６．１级地震映证了这一预报意见
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| 关 键 词： | 地下水 水化学测量 氡异常 地震预报 |
FORECASTING YELLOW SOUTH SEA EARTHQUAKE OF M s 6.1 USING HYDROCHEMICAL DATA |
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| Tang Zhenfang,Xu Yuhua. FORECASTING YELLOW SOUTH SEA EARTHQUAKE OF M s 6.1 USING HYDROCHEMICAL DATA[J]. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 1997, 0(2) |
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| Authors: | Tang Zhenfang Xu Yuhua |
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| Abstract: | The hydrochemical data and single term anomalies of Rn, Cl and Ca 2+ are analysed and synthesized using the variation of annual average discreteness of regional water radon, and the software SHEP of underground fluid forecasting method. In Oct.1996, it was predicted that a earthquake of M s 6.1 or so may occur in the Sea area of Chang Nan earthquake zone from lower decade of october, 1996 to end of 1997, specially to June, 1997, in which credibihty is 0 6 . As a result the South Yellow Sea earthquake of M s 6.1 occurred on Nov.9, 1996. |
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| Keywords: | hydrochemical measure radon anomaly earthquake prediction |
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