Evolution trend analysis of Nearshore seabed in Yangshan Deep-water Port,China

Yangshan Deep-water Port, the largest deep-water port in China, is located in the sea area of the Qiqu Archipelago adjacent to Hangzhou Bay. It goes deep into the ocean and far from the continent, and plays a key role in the economy and shipping of China. The evolution and stability of the seabed in the Yangshan Deep-water Port have potential influences on the security of port engineering. Based on GIS spatial analysis technology and MATLAB numerical analysis software, this study predicted the short-term evolution trend of the Yangshan Port frontier seabed terrain through the establishment of a modified power function model. The research included: (1) a systematic analysis of the characteristics of the terrain evolution before (1960–1997) and after (1998–2008) the construction of Yangshan Port by using terrain data from the study area; (2) based on the historical erosion and deposition characteristics of Yangshan Port, an improved power function model was established and the reliability of the model was validated to simulate the study area’s frontier seabed evolution trend in 2015. The results show that: (1) before the construction of Yangshan Port, the seabed in the study area had a narrower variation in erosion and deposition, with the ratio of erosion and deposition of the stable region, erosion area and deposition area being 53.7 %, 18.3 % and 28.0 % respectively, overall the area showed a relatively stable erosion and deposition character; (2) after the construction of the port, the erosion and deposition variation ranges of the seabed were sharply amplified, obviously due to man-made interference being stronger than natural evolution. The stable region of erosion and deposition was only 22.7 %, erosion area was 53.8 %, and the deposition area was 23.4 %, which showed an erosion intensity that was larger than the deposition intensity; (3) the established improved power function model can be used in the short-term prediction of the Yangshan Port frontier seabed evolution trend with high prediction accuracy. The results can aid in decision making with regard to coastal protection and prospective construction schemes around Yangshan Port.