舰船防避热带气旋费效比优化决策模型研究

目的针对目前根据天气预报进行防台避台的决策缺乏定量模型,定性根据天气预报结果进行防、避台风往往会造成巨大的不必要的浪费的现象,为科学合理地利用天气预报进行防、避台风提供有效工具。方法对防避费用和损失费用进行比较评估。结果给出了舰船防避热带气旋费效比优化决策模型,并进行了数据分析。结论防避热带气旋应该考虑天气不确定性因素。

Study on Constructing Cost-loss Ratio Decision Protection Model of Ships from Typhoons

ObjectiveUsing the weather forecast, the decision-makers need several hours lead time to decide whether to evacuate to an alternative operation location before the typhoon hits. Typhoons will cause significant and costly damage to ships because of lacking of a quantum protection model. An optimal decision model was proposed in this paper to help the ship protection and to save the cost.MethodCost-loss ratio analysis was used.ResultA Typhoon protection optimal decision model was deduced and the data was analyzed.ConclusionThe weather uncertainty should be considered in making protection decision.