人水系统演变模拟的嵌入式系统动力学模型

论文首先提出人水系统的概念,并针对人水系统演变模拟的难点和特点,基于系统动力学原理,提出了更具实用意义的嵌入式系统动力学模型(ESD模型)。ESD模型是在系统动力学理论方法的基础上,考虑到社会经济系统、水循环系统(包括社会水循环系统、自然水循环系统)自身的特点和规律,充分利用现有的相关理论方法,在系统动力学模型的基础上,加入其他学科的定量化模型,形成耦合的模型。该模型既全面吸收系统动力学的优点,同时又接纳了相关学科的研究成果,大大提升了系统动力学的应用研究能力,同时也解决了复杂而又有专业特点的系统模拟问题,适用于人水系统演变模拟。

The Embedded System Dynamic Model Used to Human-Water System Modeling

At first,the concept "human-water system" is introduced in the paper.According to the difficulties and characteristics of human-water system modeling,and based on the theory of system dynamics,the embedded system dynamic model(ESD model),which is more useful in practice,has been put forward.The ESD model is built and coupled from system dynamic model and other professorial models,considering the characteristics and rules of socio-economic system and water cycle system(including social water cycle and natural water cycle),and taking full advantage of correlative methodology.The model either fully takes in the advantages of the system dynamics or draws on the research achievements of relevant subjects,greatly enhancing the application ability of system dynamics.On the other hand,the model can be used to simulate the complex and professorial systems,such as human-water system.