A Microcomputer-based Forecasting Model: Potential Applications for Emergency Response Plans and Air Quality Studies

Most atmospheric transport and diffusion models within emergency response systems have very limited physics and are forced to rely on the assumption that wind and turbulence conditions at the time of the release will be representative over the period for which dispersion must be predicted. For releases where the principal concern is about the first few kilometers of travel, such an assumption is appropriate. However, for large accidental releases during stable conditions, the plume may travel for several hours before it is diluted to safe levels and the assumption of persistence may be inappropriate, particularly for transport in complex terrain. Under these circumstances, a model that can forecast changes in wind and turbulence conditions is required. We have installed such a model on microcomputers and tested it in complex terrain near Salt Lake City. One-hour tracer releases produced surface concentrations that remain high for much longer times than that expected based on one hour’ travel time with the mean wind at the source height. Furthermore, relatively large concentrations were found at distances of over 40 km from the source. The model was generally able to reproduce the principal features described by the measurements, although some effects of subgrid scale terrain were missed.