Estimation of Trends in Atmospheric Concentrations of Sulfate in the Northeastern United States

Abstract

Daily atmospheric concentrations of sulfate collected at six locations in the northeastern United States are regressed against meteorological factors, ozone, seasonal cycles, and time in order to determine if a significant trend in sulfate can be detected. The data used in this analysis were collected during the Sulfate Regional Experiment (SURE, 1977-1978) and the Eulerian Model Evaluation Field Study (EMEFS, 1988-1989). Ozone, specific humidity, and seasonal terms (reflecting the potential of the atmosphere for oxidation of sulfur dioxide) emerged as important explanatory variables. After accounting for the variability explained by environmental factors, the median estimated change in sulfate concentration from the six locations over the 11-year period is -22% (or -28% if ozone is not used as an explanatory variable). Although there are wide variations among locations, these changes are commensurate with an estimated 25% decline in sulfur emissions in the northeastern U.S. during the same period. These analyses provide insight into methods for detecting reductions in sulfate that may be expected to occur as a result of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. Uncertainties in the estimates, with consideration of serial correlation in the data, imply a minimum detectable reduction of 10% using this modeling procedure with similar data availability.