近30 a三峡库区(重庆段)城镇化发展的气温响应图谱诊断

城镇化发展是区域气候变化的重要影响因素之一。以Landsat TM影像数据、多期土地利用类型数据、城镇化率数据、DEM数据、气象站点时空数据为基础,通过城镇发展指数法、气温变异指数法,以图谱方式对三峡库区(重庆段)近30 a城镇化发展格局、气温变异格局进行可视化,运用一元线性回归模型,建立了重庆三峡库区城镇发展的气温响应模型。研究表明:(1)研究区全域城镇建设用地增长3.83倍,城镇化发展指数年增长率为4.56%,总量呈现出西南高东北低格局。(2)气温变异指数从20世纪90年代后期开始迅速增加,2005~2014保持在高指数状态,库区蓄水对气温变异指数增长的影响未达显著性水平。(3)从城镇发展的气温响应状况看,呈较强正相关性且拟合精度较高,绝大部分区县t概率值(p值)达到0.05的显著性水平。分析表明,库区下垫面物质环境的改变和人类活动的增加对区域气温的长期同向变化具有较强解释力。

STUDY ON THE GEO-INFO SPECTRUM OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE RESPONDING TO URBANIZATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR AREA (CHONGQING SECTION) IN RECENT 30 YEARS

Urbanization development is the main contributing factor to regional climate change.Based on the Landsat TM image data,multi-period land use status data,urbanization rate,DEM data and meteorological spatiotemporal data,this paper firstly constructs the urban development index and the temperature change index,then visualizes this two indexes of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (Chongqing section) by Geo-info Spectrum method,finally establishes the temperature change model responding to the urbanization development by the simple linear regression model.The research results show that:(1) Urban Constructive Land of study Area has increased 3.83 times,the annual growth rate of urbanization development index is 4.56％,and the spatial pattern is south-west high and north-east low;(2)The temperature change index increased rapidly in the late 1990s,and it remained a high index state from 2005 to 2014,but water storage in the reservoir area has little effect on the temperature change index;(3) From the view of the Geo-info Spectrum of temperature response sequence and pattern corresponding to urbanization development,two indexes show a strong positive correlation and have a better goodness of fit.The t probability value (P value) in most districts and counties reaches a significant level of 0.05.Furthermore,the change of the material environment of underlying surface and the increase of human activities in the reservoir area directly influence the long-term changes of the regional temperature.