浙江省碳排放时空格局及影响因素研究

利用2005~2010年浙江省各县市区的社会经济数据和能耗数据,测算了各县市区的碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量,采用空间自相关方法揭示了县域尺度下相邻县市区碳排放指标的空间关联性,运用地理加权回归模型定量描述了各县市区碳排放总量影响因素的空间异质性。研究结果表明:(1)研究期内,浙江省的碳排放总量从30 486万t增加到49 559万t。人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量也均呈增长趋势,且空间差异显著。(2)各县市区碳排放总量、人均碳排放量和地均碳排放量均存在较强的空间自相关性,总体上浙北浙东呈高高集聚,浙西南呈低低集聚。(3)人口和投资是影响碳排放总量的重要因素,且存在空间异质性。投资对浙西南碳排放的影响逐渐增大。

SPATIO-TEMPORAL PATTERNS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CARBON EMISSIONS IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE

Analysis of carbon emission based on small scale is necessary for making different policy for different city.Socioeconomic data and energy consumption data of each city in ZheJiang province are used to calculate the total carbon emission,carbon emission per capita and carbon emission per unit land area from 2005 to 2010.Spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to reveal the spatial correlation of carbon emission index between neighbor cities.Geographically weighted regression model is applied to describe the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factor of total carbon emission among the cities.Results showed that:(1) Total carbon emission of Zhejiang province increased from 304.86 million tons to 495.59 million tons during 2005-2010.Carbon emission per capita and carbon emission per unit land area both had rising trend and obvious spatial difference.(2) Each carbon emission index (total carbon emission,carbon emission per capita and carbon emission per unit land area) was highly spatial correlated.High-high agglomeration appeared at the north and the east areas,and Lowlow agglomeration appeared at the south and the west areas.(3) Population and investment were important driving forces of total carbon emission and both showed spatial heterogeneity in Zhejiang province.Investment played an increasingly important role in the growth of carbon emission in the south and the west areas.