Evaluating Spatio-temporal Complexities of Forest Management: An Integrated Agent-based Modeling and GIS Approach

The objective of this study is to integrate agent-based modeling and geographic information systems (GIS) for examining how interactions within forest management lead to patterns of land-cover change. Specifically, this study evaluates how management agents behave in the presence of variable timber prices, harvesting costs, and accessibility to timber and how their actions influence the spatial characteristics of the forest landscape over time. The GIS calculates the average harvested patch size, number of patches, and total harvested area as measures of emergent patterns resulting from agent actions. The results from the agent-based GIS model reveal that good economic conditions lead to few but large harvested patches, while deteriorating conditions will see more patches of smaller size if forest companies have access to high-quality timber. This study emphasizes the need for a complex systems approach to forest management as the model illustrates how system elements interact in a manner to produce emergent spatial patterns over time.