中国省际旅游发展的多指标综合相似性及时空聚类特征

由于资源禀赋、经济水平、地理区位、文化背景、基础设施等条件的不同,中国省际旅游发展呈现较大的差异.目前已有大量文献基于单个经济指标对旅游发展的时空差异进行研究,但少有研究从多指标的角度探讨旅游发展的相似性问题.论文基于六大经济指标,采用灰色关联度和夹角余弦系数构造了旅游业发展的多指标组合相似度指数,并利用一种邻居搜索算法对我国31 个省市(因数据限制,未计算香港、澳门和台湾地区)进行了空间聚类,然后以2010 年的数据为样本进行了实证分析.结果表明,旅游经济发展水平越高的地区与其他省份的相似性越低,一定程度上说明省际旅游发展呈现"极化现象".综合考虑六大经济指标,部分省份之间具有较高的相似性.基于相似度矩阵的空间聚类呈现沿海传统旅游强省、内陆旅游强省和西部及边缘旅游弱省的空间格局,但并未严格遵循地理区位相邻的分布规律.通过对2000 年和2010 年的聚类结果进行比较发现,随着全国旅游业的大发展,省际旅游呈现一种更为均衡的聚类结果.中、西及偏远地区省份的类内平均相似度显著降低,说明随着特色旅游资源的开发和利用,这些省份旅游经济的发展模式开始呈现地区特色.

Multi-Criteria Similarity and Spatial Cluster of Provincial Tourism Economic Development in China

Due to different tourism resources, economy development, geographical locations, cultural backgrounds and infrastructure conditions, Chinese regional tourism economic shows a quite different development pattern. Based on single evaluation index, a large amount of literature has explored the spatiotemporal differences of Chinese tourism development. However, few studies, from multiple criteria prospects, have discussed issues of regional difference and provincial similarity of development of Chinese tourism economy. Firstly, taking four indicators, including number of internal tourist, number of inbound tourist, internal tourism income, foreign exchange income, as aggregate criterion, the other two indicators, including percentage of the total tourism income accounted for the GDP and percentage of the tourism employment accounted for the total employment in each province, as efficiency criterion, this paper establishes a combined multi-criteria index to measure the similarity of provincial tourism development in China. Then, based on the derived similarity degrees, a neighbor-searching clustering algorithm is applied to cluster the 31 provinces in China. Based on data of the six indicators from 2000 and 2010 respectively, the spatiotemporal cluster results are explored and compared. The results show that, provinces with higher tourism development level usually have lower average similarities to other provinces, which, to some extent, reflects a"polarization phenomenon" in development of Chinese tourism economy. Although tourism development at the provincial level has significant differences, when considering the six major economic indicators some provinces have high similarity degrees. Spatial cluster shows the pattern of coastal provinces, inland provinces and west provinces, which doesn't strictly follow the geographical adjacent location distribution. Comparison of the studies on 2000 and 2010 data shows that, with great development nationwide, tourism development in China presents a more balanced clustering results; the middle, the west and the remote provinces have a significantly reduced average in-class similarity degrees from 2000 to 2010, which reports the phenomenon that through utilization of unique tourism resources, these provinces promoted their tourism economy in different modes.