基于Mann-Kendall法的电网输变电工程造价趋势研究

随着电网工程建设的发展,历史工程造价水平的整体趋势、波动幅度直接影响未来工程投资。以某地区2012- -2016 年110 kV输变电工程造价数据为基础,采用Mann-kendall法对单位容量造价、单位长度造价、主变压器单价等指标进行了趋势检验,采用指数平滑法对趋势变化幅度进行了量化分析。分析结果显示:该地区110 kV变电工程整体造价有下降趋势,线路工程整体显现了上升的趋势,但是塔材、线材的价格微有下降趋势。

Research on the cost trend of power grid transmission andtransformation engineering based on M ann - kendall method

With the development of the power grid project construction, the overall trend and thefluctuation amplitude of the historical project cost level of directly influence the future engineering in-vestment. Based on the cost data of 110 kV transmission and transformation engineering from the yearof 2012 to 2016 in an area, the indexes such as the unit capacity cost, unit length cost and the priceof the main transformer were made the trend verification by Mann-Kendall method, the trendchanging amplitude was quantitatively analyzed by exponential smoothing method. The analysis resultsshow that the overall cost of 110 kV substation project tend to reduce, the overall transmission lineengineering shows the rising trend, but the prices of the tower materials and line materials have adownward trend .