| 风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 秦鹏程,姚凤梅,曹秀霞,张佳华.风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用——研究进展[J].自然灾害学报,2012(1):39-46. |
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| 作者姓名： | 秦鹏程 姚凤梅 曹秀霞 张佳华 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院研究生院地球科学学院/中国科学院计算地球动力学重点实验室;中国农业科学院棉花研究所;中国气象科学研究院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(40771147);全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951302) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于风险理论,探讨了气候变化风险的内涵,介绍了可用于气候变化影响评价的风险评估概念框架,并着重总结了风险评估在气候变化对农业影响评价中的应用。随着目前概率型气候情景的广泛应用及利益相关者与公众对影响评估中的不确定性认识的需求,风险评估将在气候变化影响评价中得到更为广泛的应用,气候变化对农业的影响也有望基于风险形式实现终端至终端的评估。同时,当前气候变化农业影响的风险评估研究仍有许多不足之处,真正实现综合全面的评估尚有诸多问题需要解决。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 农业影响 风险评估 |
Application of risk assessment in evaluation of influence of climate change on agricultural production: review and prospect |
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| QIN Pengcheng,YAO Fengmei,CAO Xiuxia,ZHANG Jiahua.Application of risk assessment in evaluation of influence of climate change on agricultural production: review and prospect[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2012(1):39-46. |
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| Authors: | QIN Pengcheng YAO Fengmei CAO Xiuxia ZHANG Jiahua |
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| Institution: | 1.College of Earth Science,Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences/Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;2.Institute of Cotton Research,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Anyang 455004,China;3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on risk theory,this paper discusses the connotation of climate change risk,introduces the conceptual framework of risk assessment for climate change impacts,and specifically summarizes the application of risk assessment in climate change impacts on agricultural production.As ensemble modeling technology developed in climate modeling,climate projection community is now capable of producing probabilistic climate change information for impacts assessments,which can be directly fed into risk assessment.As a result,climate change impacts on agricultural production will realize an end-to-end impacts assessment through a risk-based approach.There are,however,many challenges ahead in integrated assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural production. |
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| Keywords: | climate change impact on agriculture risk assessment |
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