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Evaluation of uncertainties originating from the different modeling approaches applied to analyze regional groundwater flow in the Tono area of Japan
Authors:Yuji Ijiri  Hiromitsu Saegusa  Atsushi Sawada  Makoto Ono  Kunio Watanabe  Kenzi Karasaki  Christine Doughty  Michito Shimo  Kenichi Fumimura
Institution:1. Taisei Corporation, Nuclear Facilities Division, 1-25-1 Nishi Shinjyuku, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo 163-0606, Japan;2. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tono Geoscience Center, 1-64 Yamanouchi, Akiyo-cho, Mizunami-shi, Gifu 509-6132, Japan;3. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Geological Isolation Research and Development Directorate, 4-33 Tokai-mura, Nakagun, Ibaraki 319-1194, Japan;4. Saitama University, 255 Shimo-Okubo, Saitama 338-8570, Japan;5. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Science Division, One Cyclotron Road, MS: 90-1116, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;6. Taisei Corporation, Technology Research Center, 344-1 Nasemachi, Totsuka-ku, Yokohama 245-0051, Japan;1. Nuclear Fuel Cycle Backend Research Center, Abiko Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Abiko-shi, Chiba-ken 270-1194, Japan;2. Analytical Research Center for Experimental Science, Saga University, 1-Banchi, Honjo-cho, Saga-shi, Saga-ken 840-8502, Japan;3. Tono Geoscientific Research Unit, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Yamanouchi, Akiyo-cho, Mizunami-shi, Gifu 509-6132, Japan;4. Faculty of Science and Engineering, Saga University, 1-Banchi, Honjo-cho, Saga-shi, Saga-ken 840-8502, Japan;1. Singapore Centre on Environmental Life Sciences Engineering (SCELSE), School of Biological Sciences SBS-B1N-27, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang Drive, Singapore 637551, Singapore;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2001 Ghausi Hall, One Shields Avenue, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA;3. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Guwahati, 781039, India;4. HDR Engineering, Inc., 2365 Iron Point Road, Suite 300, Folsom, CA 95630-8709, USA;5. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 50 Nanyang Ave, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798, Singapore;1. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Center for Computational Science and e-Systems, 178-4-4 Wakashiba, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-0871, Japan;2. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Fukushima Environmental Safety Center, 45-169 Sukakeba, Kaibana, Haramachi-ku, Minamisoma City, Fukushima 975-0036, Japan;3. Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Fukushima Environmental Safety Center, 10-2 Fukasaku, Miharu-machi, Tamura-gun, Fukushima, 963-7700, Japan;4. Research Organization for Information Science and Technology, 2-4 Shirakata, Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken, 319-1106, Japan;1. School of Life Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230027, PR China;2. Department of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Houston, Houston, TX 77004-5001, USA;3. Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Science at the Microscale, Hefei, Anhui 230026, PR China;1. National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease, Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada;2. Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada;3. Zoetis, Veterinary Medicine Research & Development, Kalamazoo, MI 49007, USA;4. School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA;5. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Uniformed Services University, Bethesda, MD 20814, USA;6. Center for Food Security and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50010, USA;7. Transboundary Animal Biologics, Inc, Ames, IA 50010, USA
Abstract:Qualitative evaluation of the effects of uncertainties originating from scenario development, modeling approaches, and parameter values is an important subject in the area of safety assessment for high-level nuclear waste disposal sites. In this study, regional-scale groundwater flow analyses for the Tono area, Japan were conducted using three continuous models designed to handle heterogeneous porous media. We evaluated the simulation results to quantitatively analyze uncertainties originating from modeling approaches. We found that porous media heterogeneity is the main factor which causes uncertainties. We also found that uncertainties originating from modeling approaches greatly depend on the types of hydrological structures and heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity values in the domain assigned by modelers. Uncertainties originating from modeling approaches decrease as the amount of labor and time spent increase, and iterations between investigation and analyses increases.
Keywords:Modeling  Uncertainty  Heterogeneity
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