天山北坡经济带经济发展与污染减排潜力以及工业绿色发展策略

天山北坡经济带是"一带一路"倡议中最大的综合经济带之一，其经济与环境协调发展模式可为"一带一路"沿线国家实现区域绿色发展提供借鉴.通过引入区位熵的概念，从空间维度对天山北坡经济带各经济区主导行业进行分析，并采用情景分析方法从时间维度对天山北坡经济带不同经济发展情景下的污染物减排潜力进行分析.结果表明:①区位熵分析结果显示，石化、冶金、食品饮料、纺织服装、煤炭、能源供应等行业是天山北坡经济带的主导行业，占天山北坡经济带工业总产值的84%.②情景分析结果显示，与2014年相比，情景1（现状情景）下天山北坡经济带2020年COD_Cr和SO₂排放量将会增加90.86%和194.26%，情景2（产业结构调整情景）下将分别增加66.48%和84.97%，情景3（科技创新情景）下将分别增加42.34%和113.77%，情景4（生态工业园情景）下则分别降低8.39%和8.77%.③在污染物减排方面，情景4下COD_Cr和SO₂排放量分别较情景1降低52.00%和69.00%.④根据情景分析结果，特别是生态工业园情景下的减排潜力，结合目前天山北坡经济带6个经济区主导行业发展现状，从空间维度、时间维度和产业维度提出天山北坡经济带的工业绿色发展策略，主要包括积极创建生态工业示范园区、发展循环经济、调整产业结构、开展技术创新等. 

Economic Development, Emission Reduction Potential, and Strategy Analysis of Industrial Green Developmentin Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone

The Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone is one of the largest comprehensive economic zone in the 'Belt and Road' Initiative. And its coordinated development model of economy and environment could providea reference for countries along the 'Belt and Road' to achieve green and sustainable development. Location quotient is used to identify the leading industries of the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone from the spatial dimension, while scenario analysis is used to assess the emission reduction potential from the time dimension. The results show that:(1) The six leading industries in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone are the petrochemical industry, the metallurgical industry, the food and beverage industry, the textile and garment industry, the coal industry, and the energy-production industry, accounting for 84% of the total industrial output value of the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone. (2) Scenario 1 (current situation):COD_Cr and SO₂ emission will increase by 90.86% and 194.26% respectively in 2020;Scenario 2 (industrial restructuring):COD_Cr and SO₂ emission will increase by 66.48% and 84.97% respectively; Scenario 3 (technological innovation):COD_Cr and SO₂ emission will increase by 42.34% and 113.77% respectively; Scenario 4 (the eco-industrial park):emission will significantly reduce by 8.39% for COD_Cr and 8.77% for SO₂, compared with 2014. (3) Scenario 4 (the eco-industrial park):emission will significantly reduce by 52.00% for COD_Cr and 69.00% for SO₂, compared with Scenario 1. (4)According to the results of scenario analysis, especially the emission reduction potential of the eco-industrial park scenario, the green industrial development strategies of the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone are suggested based onspatial, time and industrial dimension. These are the perspective of eco-industrial parks construction, circular economy development, industrial restructure and technological innovation.