Validation of a hybrid forecasting system for the ozone concentrations over the Paris area |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Coal & Environmental Research Laboratory, Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd., 3-1 Nakasode, Sodegaura, Chiba 299-0267, Japan;2. Department of Chemistry, Biotechnology, and Chemical Engineering, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-40 Korimoto, Kagoshima 890-0065, Japan;1. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment and Pollution Control, College of Environmental and Energy, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center, Guangzhou 510006, China;2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China;3. USEPA/Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards, RTP NC27711, USA;4. Department of Civil Engineering, Lamar University, Beaumont, TX 77710-0024, USA;5. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996-2010, USA;6. Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;1. Longfengshan Regional Background Station, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Heilongjiang, China;2. Meteorological Observation Center (MOC) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China;3. College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China;4. Laboratory for Air Pollution and Environmental Technology, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), Dübendorf, Switzerland;5. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China;6. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS), Beijing, China;7. Zhejiang Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Hangzhou, China;8. Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |
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| Abstract: | A simplified hybrid statistical-deterministic chemistry-transport model, is used in real time for the prediction of ozone in the area of Paris during Summer 1999. We present here a statistical validation of this experiment. We distinguish the forecasts in the urban area from forecasts in the pollution plume downwind of the city. The validation of model forecasts, up to 3 days ahead, is performed against ground based observations within and up to 50 km outside of Paris. In the urban area, ozone levels are fairly well forecast, with correlation coefficients between forecast and observations ranging between 0.7 and 0.8 and root mean square errors in the range 15–20 μg m−3 at short lead times. While the bias of urban forecast is very low, the largest peaks are somehow underestimated. The ozone plume amplitude is generally well reproduced, even at long lead times (root mean square errors of about 20–30 μg m−3), while the direction of the plume is only captured at short lead times (about 70% of the time). The model has difficulties in forecasting the direction of the plume under stagnant weather conditions. We estimate the model ability to forecast concentrations above 180 μg m−3, which are of practical relevance to air quality managers. It is found that about 60% of these events are well forecast, even at long lead times, while the exact monitoring station where the exceedance is observed can only be forecast at short lead times. Finally, we found that about half of the forecast error is due to the error in the estimation of the boundary conditions, which are forecast by a simple linear regression model here. |
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