中国经济发展与水环境压力脱钩态势评价与展望

在对经济发展的水环境压力概念进行合理界定基础上，建立经济发展与水环境压力的脱钩指标体系。通过国内外相关文献研究与数据收集，构建了中国经济发展与水环境压力的脱钩潜力评价与时态分析模型，评价1986~2010年水利发展不同阶段中国经济总量增长与废水排放的脱钩潜力与脱钩时态、以及经济总量增长与工业废水化学需氧量的脱钩时态。在此基础上，根据水环境库茨涅茨曲线变化趋势，对我国废水排放总量的自然发展趋势进行预测，并根据国家发展规划对废水排放总量预测结果进行修正。同时，结合国家发展规划和环境保护规划，对水环境压力脱钩进行展望。结果表明，我国经济发展与废水排放总量总体处于弱脱钩发展态势、与工业废水化学需氧量排放总量总体处于强脱钩发展态势。预计2020年左右，我国经济发展与水环境压力有望保持绝对脱钩的发展态势，水环境得到彻底改善与净化

EVALUATION AND PROSPECT ON THE DECOUPLING TREND OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND WATER ENVIRONMENT PRESSURE IN CHINA

According to the literature research and data collection，the evaluation model of the decoupling potentiality is given，to analyze the decoupling trend of economic development and water environment pressure of water conservancy stages during 1986-2010，based on the IPAT model and elastic analysis method.The results show that the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak generally，which was weak in the Seventh Five Year Plan period and Eight Five Year Plan period.Although the decoupling trend of economic development and wastewater total amount was weak in the Nine Five Year Plan period，the decoupling trend was not obvious.The wastewater discharge amount was further increased in the Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period.It means that the wastewater discharge amount was not controlled strictly，and kept in the sustainable growth.The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater experienced the process of “strong decoupling weak decoupling strong decoupling”.The decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Seventh Five Year Plan period.Although the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was weak in the Eight Five Year Plan period，the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong in the Nine Five Year Plan period，Ten Five Year Plan period and Eleven Five Year Plan period.Generally，the decoupling trend of economic development and COD of industrial wastewater was strong，accorded with the situation of industrial modernization at present.In the process of economic development，the COD of industrial wastewater was declined，but the COD of cities and countries wastewater and COD of countries breeding industry was increased.Then，according to the changing trend of Kuznets curve of water environment，the wastewater total amount forecasting of general development with Kuznets curve model was given，the results of wastewater total amount was modified combined with country develop program，and the feasibility analysis of the decoupling of water environment pressure was given from the angles of soc policy and eco technology.The decoupling trend of economic development and water environment pressure is strong absolutely in 2020，to improve and purify water environment